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Sure, not being in a mid-major conference makes things tough to reach one of those hefty payout, prime time BCS bowl games. But it's been done before: in 2004 with Urban Meyer's Utah Utes, and even TCU had a solid shot last season with an 11-1 final record. While these teams will have a huge mountain to climb if they are going to make some BCS noise, the addition of an extra BCS championship game, means two more open spots for that mid-major Cinderella. So who has the best chance at wearing the glass slipper in 2006?
Mid-majors that have the best chance at making some noise this season.
1. TCU – TCU has the best shot at making any noise in the BCS this year, hands down. The Horned Frogs have a year of experience in the Mountain West (and a championship to show for it) and bring back a solid stable on offense. Quarterback Jeff Ballard returns and the Frogs toughest non-conference game (Texas Tech) is at home. The Frogs do lose kick returner/specialist/wide receiver Kory Rodgers and the team will also face a much tougher Mountain West conference. Utah and BYU will be improved from last season, and a road trip to Colorado State at the end of year won't be easy. Non-fairy tale realistic goal: While the BCS at-large would be huge for any mid-major, look for the Frogs to win the Mountain West for the second straight year and head back to a solid bowl game in December.
2. Nevada – 2006 is the year of the Wolfpack in the WAC. Boise State will be working with a new head coach and Fresno State has a few holes to fill, including replacing a three year starter at quarterback. But Nevada has the confidence coming off a turnaround 2005 season and quarterback Jeff Rowe is ready to shine once again in Chris Ault's offense. Nevada will have some huge hills to climb though, with non-conference games against Arizona State, Colorado State, and Northwestern. Nevada also has to play at Fresno State to end the season all while finding a replacement for one of last seasons best ‘unknown' running backs in BJ Mitchell. Non-fairy tale realistic goal: Winning the WAC. Anything more would be great for Reno but wins against Arizona State and/or Northwestern could be tough. Look for the Wolfpack to be bowling in December as the WAC's title winner.
3. Utah – Urban Meyer is in Florida. Alex Smith is in San Francisco. And the 2006 Utes could once again be nipping on the heels of the BCS. Utah will have its hands full if they are to head back to a BCS bowl: the Utes will have to knock off TCU and regain its top spot in the Mountain West, along with pulling a huge upset on the road in Pasadena against the UCLA Bruins to open their season. It might not sound very realistic, but the Utes will have some weapons coming back in 06. There will be a quarterback controversy probably throughout the season as injured starter Brian Johnson returns to battle with the late season star Brett Ratliff. As long as the QB controversy doesn't distract this team, Utah can shoot for the Mountain West title - especially with the two biggest games (TCU and BYU) being played in Salt Lake City. Non-fairy tale realistic goal: Most likely a second place Mountain West finish for the Utes, especially when they will need to find some kind of running game. Having two quarterbacks is a great option, but it doesn't matter much when only one is on the field.
4. Boise State – Boise State will play a different role in this year's WAC race, being a potential underdog to a solid Nevada team. Former Head Coach Dan Hawkins is showing his fun loving spirit to the Boulder faithful leaving new head coach Chris Peterson to take over the reigns. Luckily for Peterson the Broncos bring back the basics to win in college football: an experienced starter Jared Zabransky and a strong defense. The only question will be how much these Broncos miss Hawkins and if they can slow down the Nevada offense. If the Broncos can do both, their non-conference schedule isn't extremely tough and the Broncos could be a top 20 team and BCS hopeful Non-fairy tale realistic goal: Winning the WAC. The WAC should once again be a two to three team race, and the Broncos have a great chance at the title. A Road game at Nevada could be the game that decides the WAC champ.
5. BYU – One of three Mountain West teams that have the potential to make some national BCS noise. TCU and Utah will both be tough to pass if the Cougars are going to win the MWC but they do have the offensive firepower to rack up some points. Quarterback John Beck and running back Curtis Brown return in Bronco Mendenhall's second season as head coach for the Cougars. The main downfall for the Cougs may be the schedule – road games at Utah and TCU as well as non-conference road games against Arizona and Boston College. The Mountain West is considered the ‘next best conference' behind the big six and has the best shot at as BCS party crasher. If the Winner of the conference can put together a 12-0 or 11-1 regular season record they may be able to sneak into the BCS dance in January. Non-fairy tale realistic goal: BYU has a tough schedule and also has two teams ahead of them in conference that could make their own national noise (TCU and Utah). John beck will need to have a near flawless year for the Cougars to win the Mountain West, but don't be surprised if this team pushes the Frogs and Utes for the top spot. Realistically BYU will finish third in the Mountain West and earn a trip either back to Las Vegas or to the Poinsettia Bowl in San Diego.
6. Northern Illinois – Northern Illinois may be the best team in the MAC and they also return one of the nation's best running backs in Garrett Wolfe. Wolfe rushed for over 1500 yards last season and he missed over two games due to an injury. The Huskies will need Wolfe to stay healthy if they are to put together a MAC title run, or even a scare into the BCS. Once again a mid-major has a tough non-conference schedule (at Iowa and Ohio State) which will pretty much dampen any chance at making national headlines. But, with the talent Northern Illinois returns – Wolfe, quarterbacks Phil Horvath and Dan Nicholson – the Huskies are easily the MAC favorites heading into the season. Besides a rough schedule NIU loses two offensive lineman and wide receiver Sam Hurd. This team has all the tools and the coaching to finish with a 9-3 or 10-2 season, but even with that impressive record they probably won't receive a glimpse from the BCS officials simply due to their Mid-American Conference status. Non-fairy tale realistic goal: Winning the MAC, owning the nation's leading rusher, and celebrating in the GMAC or Motor City bowl is a reasonable goal for the Huskies – anything more would be a nice surprise…
Others receiving votes: Fresno State…Central Florida…Navy…UTEP
Making a splash in the BCS will be tough for ALL of these teams – they will need to go undefeated or close to undefeated to even e mentioned in the same breath as a January BCS game. It may not sound realistic but the Cinderella story could come true for one of these teams – they will just need a few breaks to fall their way and a dose of confidence to crack the top 12 in the final BCS standings.
Inside Slants – the latest rumblings in College Football
1. Home sweet home – The Tulane Green Wave will be playing their first true ‘home' game in more than a year in 2006. On September 30th Tulane will host SMU in the Superdome in New Orleans. The Green Wave played all their 2005 games technically away from home due to Hurricane Katrina. Tulane will play five games in the Superdome this year bringing the football life back to New Orleans and the fans of the Green Wave.
2. Erickson back in Idaho saddle – Dennis Erickson returned to his roots this week as he became the head coach of the Idaho Vandals…for the second time. Erickson was Idaho head coach in 1982 and it was his first head coaching job. Now in 2006 Erickson returns and ticket sales have jumped drastically since the announcement. Erickson takes over for Nick Holt who was leaving Idaho for a position with the NFL's St Louis Rams until he changed his mind and will coach the USC Trojans defense.
3. Petrino to Al, “No Thanks” – Louisville head coach Bobby Petrino turned down the Oakland Raiders head coaching job once again, but he said he was flattered by the Raiders determination. The Raiders had offered Petrino the jobs three times, including a contract worth $18 million over five years but the Cardinals head man decided to stay in college football. Petrino was the only candidate to receive an offer before Al Davis made an offer to Art Shell over the weekend.
4. Improved replay system in the works – An improved replay system looks to be on its way to the NCAA ranks, allowing coaches to have at least one challenge for each game as well as the replay booth pausing games for a questionable call. Only the Mountain West conference had allowed its coaches to challenge a play in the past, but with the recent approvals it could be a system wide change.
5. Arizona-BYU resume rivalry in 2006 – Arizona and BYU will meet up in the 2006 season opener, the first time in almost 29 years. The Cougars and Wildcats had an annual rivalry that started in 1936 when Arizona and BYU were part of the Western Athletic Conference. Arizona joined the Pac-10 in 1978 and the two teams haven't faced off since. The game will be held in Tucson but the time is still TBA as Pac-10 broadcasting rights will announce the time closer to the season opener.
6. Stanford Stadium renovation progressing – The new Stanford Stadium is coming along strong and should be ready to go come September. The 50,000 seat stadium will have fewer seats than the original and will also be dropping the track from the stadium – making for a welcoming football atmosphere. The stadium hopes to be complete for the September 9th game against local rival San Jose State. For more information check out: stanfordstadium.com
Parting Shot
* This week's Parting Shot goes out to the college football diehards. Enjoy the two months off before the NFL Draft, or college spring games, or NFL combine. March Madness will be here soon enough and not long until more pre-season predictions are released. Enjoy the break folks!
Matt Shaw is a NCAA staff writer for football.com. You can reach him at: matthewrshaw@gmail.com.