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		Pick Six: O/U of 2005

		Pick Six – O/U achievers of 2005 A quick look at the underachievers and overachievers of 2005 and how they will fare in 2006… Underachievers in 2005 1. Big Ten pre-season favorites: Purdue Boilermakers and Iowa Hakweyes Purdue Rewind to 05: Purdue was the sexy pre-season pick to win the Big Ten last season but after starting out 0-4 in conference the pre-season pick looked more like a bust. The Boilermakers had their entire defense returning from the season before, had an experienced quarterback in backup Brandon Kirsch, and had the schedule to run the table – not having to play Michigan or Ohio State. So what went wrong? The defense failed to stop the opposing passing attack, Kirsch lost his starting job half way through the season, and Purdue still had to play Penn State and other Big Ten foes who gave the Boilermakers more than they could handle. Fast Forward to 06: Kirsch is gone and last season's breakthrough starter Curtis Painter returns to an experienced squad. While it may sound like 2005 all over again, here's guessing Joe Tiller will have his team focused and building on the disappointment of 2005. The defense will be ready for round two and the fans in West Lafayette need to put 2005 behind them and realize this team isn't among the Big Ten's best, not yet at least. Early-bird prediction: Purdue will have the experience on the field but Tiller will have to improve the team's mindset for a successful 2006. Painter showed signs of being a solid Big Ten quarterback so if he can mature Purdue could find its way back into a mid-level bowl. Iowa Rewind to 05: The Hawkeyes were coming off a 10-2 record in 2004 including a dramatic win over LSU in the bowl game last year. Drew Tate returned and the defense was led by a bunch of stud linebackers in Abdul Hodge and Chad Greenway. So what went wrong? Iowa had a few close losses against Michigan and Northwestern, and also lost the in-state rivalry to Iowa State after Drew Tate left with a concussion. The Hawkeyes also missed their departed defensive line of 2004, having to replace all four starters and their linebackers were left making all the tackles. Fast Forward to 06: Drew Tate returns and the Iowa offense is as balanced as any team in the Big Ten. The defense loses its talented linebacker duo and will need to replace their leadership immediately. Don't ever count out a squad coached by Kirk Ferentz though, and the Hawkeyes know 2005 was a rough year and will build on it. Early-bird prediction: The Hawkeyes will probably finish somewhere in the top four of the Big Ten with Michigan, Ohio State, and Penn State as the other three. Unless the Hawkeyes somehow put together a strong run late in the season (with 3 of the last 4 at home) Iowa will probably head to the Outback or Capital One Bowl. 2. Tennessee Volunteers Rewind to 05: The Vols 2005 season was a pure disaster, finishing 5-6 and watching the bowl games from home in Knoxville. After coming off an impressive Cotton Bowl win over Texas A&M in the 2004 bowl season and with the talent that coach Phil Fulmer has on this team, last season's debacle was one of the worst stories of the year - even Fulmer sent out an email to the Vol faithful apologizing for the team's performance. Erik Ainge and Rick Clausen battled for the starting job all year, and neither one of them found much rhythm. And what could have been the cherry on the top failed to be as the Vols almost lost to Memphis…at home…when the Tigers were without DeAngelo Williams. Fast Forward to 06: Ainge is now the main man in Tennessee thanks to Clausen's graduation and the return of former offensive coordinator David Cutcliffe couldn't have come at a better time. Cutcliffe worked with Eli Manning down at Ole Miss when he was the head coach, and Cutcliffe was also the Vols' offensive coordinator when Peyton Manning was in Knoxville. The Vols do lose some depth on the offensive and defensive line, with Jesse Mahelona, Parys Haralson, Cody Douglas, and Albert Toeaina all using up their eligibility. Early-bird prediction: The Vols won't have a repeat of 2005 but they won't return to the SEC title game either in 2006. The Vols will most likely win 8-9 games next season and Ainge will turn things around to finally live up to the hype. The Vols backfield will be dangerous as always with Arian Foster carrying the load in the running game. Cutcliffe will begin to work his magic once again in Knoxville and the Vols will be in contention in the SEC east, but Florida and South Carolina will be stronger next season so expect a dogfight all season. 3. Texas A&M Aggies Rewind to 05: The Aggies were locked and loaded to finally break through in the Big XII South. Oklahoma had lost a ton of talent to graduation, including Heisman winner Jason White. Sure Texas stood in the way, but the Longhorns came to College Station for the end of the year showdown. All the pieces were there for coach Dennis Franchione to put together, but 2005 was another disappointment. Reggie McNeal returned at quarterback for the Aggies, and he was considered a pre-season Heisman favorite, as long as he could lead the Aggies to an impressive season. McNeal's name soon vanished from Heisman consideration as the Aggies failed to make a name for themselves, losing at Clemson in the season opener, before getting tossed around in the Big XII schedule. Fast Forward to 06: Coach Franchione will once again rely on his impressive recruiting classes to fill some key positions. Gone are McNeal at quarterback and fan favorite Jaxson Appel at safety, leaving the Aggies searching for new leaders for 2006. With Appel gone, the secondary must try and fill some holes to play better in the passing game next year. The Aggies were roasted game after game in the passing attack and Texas A&M needs to focus on slowing down offenses before building their own. Early-bird prediction: The Aggies will have holes to fill, but luckily their schedule isn't as brutal as years past. They open up against the Citadel and UL Lafayette allowing coach Fran's guys to gel together before hitting the ever-tough Big XII slate. The Aggies will most likely finish in the middle of the South pack again, with Texas, OU, and Texas Tech all ahead of them come bowl time. The Aggies could easily finish with 7 wins and find themselves in the Independence or Houston bowl next year. 4. North Texas Mean Green Rewind to 05: The Green were far from 'mean' in 2005 as they went 2-9 and had their Sun Belt streak snapped at 25 games. Sure every streak comes to an end, but going from Sun Belt Champs at 7-0 to last place at 2-5 is a shock. The so-called best running back duo in America (Patrick Cobbs and Jamario Thomas) never fully lived up the billing. The duo were still able to rack up 150 yards per game on the ground, but the lack of the passing game forced defenses to key the rush all season long when facing North Texas. 2005 was a disappointing season, especially coming off a 7-0 Sun Belt record in 2004, but 2006 may bring brighter days… Fast Forward to 06: The rushing duo is now a solo performance as Patrick Cobbs has used up his eligibility and Jamario Thomas is the lead man. The Mean Green also are lucky enough to still have some experience around from their Sun Belt title days and will build on the experience factor in 2006. Early-bird prediction: If Thomas can get some help in the passing game and the defense can find a way to slow down opponents, the Green should be back in the running for the Sun Belt crown and a trip to the New Orleans Bowl in December. 5. Pittsburgh Panthers Rewind to 05: First year head coach Dave Wannstedt's opening act was the complete opposite of fellow NFL counterpart Charlie Weis' at Notre Dame. The Panthers not only got smoked by the Irish early on in the season, but the following week they lost to Ohio on the road. The passing combo of Tyler Palko to Greg Lee never fully kicked into full gear and the Panthers were left at home come bowl season. Considering the Panthers were toss up favorites (with Louisville) to win the Big East, but ended up finishing fifth. Fast Forward to 06: Greg Lee opted to head to the NFL early so Palko will need another receiver to step up as the go-to guy. Palko will most likely build on another off-season under the tutelage of Wannstedt, and the defense will need to regroup after last year's disappointment. Pitt loses its big playmaker in Lee, but has a solid backfield to perhaps focus more on a rushing game than last season. Early-bird prediction: The Big East will be fun to watch, with everyone jumping on the West Virginia band wagon look for teams like Pitt, Louisville, Rutgers, and South Florida to be gunning for the champs. Pitt will probably be back in bowl contention next season, but they will Palko to be a proven leader and make smart decisions in the pocket. The one positive for Wannstedt – fellow NFL coaching alumnus Greg Robinson ( Syracuse) will have a tougher time wooing the fans in season number two in the Big East. 6. Wyoming Cowboys Rewind to 05: Coming into the 2005 season the Mountain West was there for the taking. The Cowboys were coming off an impressive Las Vegas Bowl win over UCLA, and the experts were jumping on the bandwagon – including myself. The Pokes even started off strong, with a close loss to Florida and a four game winning streak. That's when things went downhill for the boys of Laramie. Wyoming lost its next six games, all in conference, and failed to repeat in its quest for back-to-back bowl seasons. The Cowboys also had one of the league's best wide receivers in Javon Bouknight, but he can't win the game by himself. Fast Forward to 06: Bouknight is off to the NFL and the Cowboys need to figure out how to fill some holes from last year's 'experienced' team. Joe Glenn will need to work his magic as young guys will see plenty of playing time and the linebackers will need to take over as veteran leaders of the squad. Early-bird prediction: The Cowboys lost their final six games last year, all to Mountain West foes, so they will need to find a way to distance themselves from the pack. Teams like Utah, BYU, TCU, and Air Force all will be better next season so finishing higher than fifth may be a tough task. * Others receiving votes: Bowling Green Falcons, UAB Blazers, Syracuse Orange Overachievers in 2005 1. Notre Dame Fighting Irish Rewind to 05: Charlie Weis came to South Bend after Ty Willingham was ousted and he simply took Notre Dame to another level. The Irish were coming off a 6-6 season and Weis implemented his offense and tutored Brady Quinn into a 2007 top five draft pick. The defense was much improved, led by safety and punt returner Tom Zbikowski. Zbikowski's punt return skills made the Irish an all-around improved team, noted by close losses to USC and Ohio State. Fast Forward to 06: Quinn comes back for his senior year along with his main passing weapon, Jeff Samardzija. The offense will have another successful year with Quinn at the helm, but the loss of Maurice Stovall and Anthony Fasano may slow this offense in the early season, untilt hey find another receiver to take over. The schedule is once again visibly tough, although last season's tough schedule faded fast after Purdue and Tennessee had 'off' years. Early-bird prediction: Even with its tough schedule ( Penn State at home, USC on the road, UCLA at home to name a few) Notre Dame will be in the national title hunt all season long. Ifg the Irish can go through this schedule with only one loss expect to see them in Glendale, Arizona for the BCS Championship game; if they rack up two to three losses the Irish will be in a BCS bowl, just not for the title. 2. Penn State Nittany Lions Rewind to 05: Joe Paterno was able to take the Penn State program back to the national title level and thanks to the leadership of Michael Robinson and Paul Posluszny, the Nittany Lions are BACK. The defense was special, with Posluszny and Tamba Hali leading the standout group. On offense, Robinson finally took his game to the next level, but his leadership was what carried this squad. Penn State also got some help from freshman Justin King and Derrick Williams which will carry over into 2006. Fast Forward to 06: Penn State loses one leader and keeps another, as Robinson heads off for the NFL and Posluszny returns to Happy Valley. Penn State also loses Hali, but brings back Williams and King. Anthony Morelli was a big name high school recruit who potentially was going to get a shot at starting quarterback in 2005 if Robinson faltered. Early-bird prediction: While Penn State won't finish ranked third in the nation next year don't expect this team to slide to the middle of the Big Ten pack. Penn State must travel to Notre Dame and Ohio State (currently Football.com's 1 and 2 teams in the pre-season rankings) and adjust to a new quarterback and leader on offense. Look for Penn State to finish in the top three of the Big Ten and either earning an at-large BCS bowl bid or a trip to the Capital One Bowl in January. 3. TCU Horned Frogs Rewind to 05: TCU made a splash in its first year in the Mountain West: they wrapped up the division three weeks before the season came to a close and were 11-1 on the season (8-0 in conference). The Frogs were one of the best special teams unit with KR/PR Cory Rodgers returning kicks and giving TCU great field position to start their offensive drives. The offense also bulldozed its way through the Mountain West defenses, led by quarterback Jeff Ballard. Ballard took over the starting role mid-season after Tye Gunn went down with a shoulder injury – and the Frogs never looked back, finishing strong at 11-1 after a 5-6 record in 2004. Fast Forward to 06: The offense should be able to keep a majority of last year's firepower going with Ballard coming back at quarterback, and both running backs (Aaron Brown and Robert Merrill) returning. The Frogs lose utility man Kory Rodgers but they do bring back four out of the five top receivers. TCU will once again be the league's favorite in 2006, but this season teams will have the Frogs offense figured out. The real question will be if the other Mountain West teams can slow the attack or even stop it. Early-bird prediction: TCU will be dangerous once again and the Mountain West's best team heading into 2006. The Frogs open up with games against Baylor, Texas Tech, and Army. If the Horned Frogs go 2-1 or an impressive 3-0 in those games this team could be pushing for an at-large BCS bid next season. The guess here is that they go 2-1, lose one or two more games in conference but still win the Mountain West for the second consecutive year. 4. C-USA division winners: Tulsa Golden Hurricane and Central Florida Golden Knights Tulsa Rewind to 05: Tulsa was an amazing story in 2005, especially after finishing 2004 with a 5-6 record. The Golden Hurricane were led by tight end Garrett Mills, who set the record for receiving yards in an NCAA season by a tight end. The defense was extremely solid and coach Steve Kragthrope had things rolling in Tulsa all season long. Fast Forward to 06: Tulsa loses Garrett Mills and kick returner Ashlan Davis, so they will need to find some new playmakers to step up on key downs and special teams. Lucky for the Hurricane their schedule isn't too brutal with North Texas and Stephen F. Austin early on. Kragthorpe will have his team juiced up for a repeat performance in 2006, and Tulsa should be fun to watch. Early-bird prediction: Kragthorpe and company will most likely stay at the top of Conference USA but will have some stiff competition from Southern Miss, UTEP and UCF. If the defense can slow down the explosive offenses then we may see Tulsa back in the C-USA title game. Central Florida Rewind to 05: The Knights' turn-around story of 2005 was just one of the many great headlines on the amazing season. Head coach George O'Leary turned the Knights from a 0-11 laughing stock to one of the best teams in Conference USA (along with Tulsa). The Knights went 8-5 on the season and earned a trip to the Hawaii Bowl in an impressive campaign. Although the defense wasn't fantastic the team built on each win and its confidence was through the roof by season's end. Fast Forward to 06: Steven Moffett returns to run the offense while the defense will be more experienced. The defense gave up a decent amount of yards last season, but they found ways to win and that's all that matters. This team will be able to use its experience and confidence to once out grind out another impressive season. Early-bird prediction: If UCF can build on 2005 and iron out their wrinkles on defense look for UCF to be back in the C-USA title game in 2006. 5. UCLA Bruins Rewind to 05: UCLA's 3005 season was magical in all the senses of the word. The offense was exciting and had the knack for late game comebacks. The defense couldn't stop anybody on the ground, forcing high shootout games with Drew Olson and Maurice Drew stealing the show. The season was mighty impressive (10-2 overall) after coming off a 6-6 year in 2004 – capped off with a Sun Bowl win over Northwestern. Fast Forward to 06:The Bruins lose their top three offensive stars (Olson, Drew, and tight end Marcedes Lewis) and also lose their defensive leader in Spencer Havner. To top things off, their running backs coach and best recruiter Eric Bieniemy took a job with the Minnesota Vikings this off-season and will be gone also. The good news for the Bruins is that their offense may not miss a beat, even with the departed stars. Quarterback Ben Olsen was a top recruit out of high school a few years back when he originally chose BYU, before going on a Mormon mission – only to transfer to UCLA. The Bruins also have Chris Markey and Khalil Bell returning at running back, as both had over 100 yards each in the Sun Bowl when they replaced the injured Maurice Drew. The defense will need to learn how to at least slow the run if this team is going to repeat its 10-2 performance. Early-bird prediction: The Pac-10 will be a much better conference than even this year, perhaps with more balance in the conference. USC and UCLA may drop off a bit, but Arizona State, Oregon, Cal, and even Arizona all have a shot at the league crown. Look for UCLA to lose a few close ones (unlike last season and the miraculous comebacks) and to have an 8-9 win season. 6. Western Michigan Broncos Rewind to 05: The Broncos final record doesn't indicate a smashing successful season at 7-5, but after finishing 2004 with a 1-10 record, 7-5 is mighty impressive. The Broncos also lost their starting quarterback early in the season and had a true freshman take over the reins. Quarterback Tim Hiller filled in admirably for the injured Ryan Cubit, thanks to the play of a stingy defense and the MAC's best receiver, Greg Jennings. Western Michigan wrapped up three of the four major MAC awards this year with best offensive performer ( Jennings), best freshman (Hiller), and top coach (Head Coach Bill Cubit) Fast Forward to 06: Western Michigan will have one heck of a time trying to replace Jennings and his productivity. Quarterbacks Hiller and Cubit return, making for a great off-season battle, and the defense returns a few key athletes as well. The MAC will be competitive as always, so the quarterback-to-be will need to make minimal mistakes to carry the Broncos. Early-bird prediction: Western Michigan will finish once again in the middle of the MAC pack, but that shouldn't be considered a disappointment. Teams like Toledo, Bowling Green, and Miami all have to replace leaders at QB while the Broncos already have two solid athletes available at that position. Another seven win season would be a great season for the team from Kalamazoo. * Others receiving votes: West Virginia Mountaineers, Nevada Wolfpack, Rutgers Scarlet Knights, Alabama Crimson Tide, Nebraska Cornhuskers Inside Slants – the latest rumblings in College Football 1. Game on – The talks surrounding the annual OU-Texas matchup in the Cotton Bowl are back on this week as athletic director Joe Castiglione was given the green light to talk with the City of Dallas about renewing the contract. The game has been a staple in Dallas since 1929 and the current contract runs through 2008. Dallas officials are looking to add 15,000 – 17,000 more seats to the stadium as part of a renovation project for the Cotton Bowl. 2. Show me the money – Georgia head coach Mark Richt earned a new eight year, $16 million contract with the Bulldogs, a raise of $500,000 per year. Georgia upset LSU in the SEC title game this season, only to come up short against West Virginia in the Sugar Bowl. The new contract ties Richt down until the 2013 season and also has a few stiff restrictions if he opts out. Richt will have to pay UGA the remaining amount on his contract if he was going to leave early…While we on are the subject of raises, Texas head man Mack Brown earned himself a raise – just a few weeks after bringing Austin a national championship. Brown will earn roughly $2.5 million this season, up about $400,000 from last year's salary. 3. Movin' on up – The USC-Arkansas game, originally schedule for September 9th, has been moved up a week to the 2 nd for ESPN broadcasting privileges. No time has been set on the game. With USC's second game coming on the 16th, it will give Coach Pete Carroll an extra week to prepare for the talented Nebraska team they will face at the Coliseum. 4. One More year – Auburn cornerback David Irons will receive a sixth year of eligibility thanks to the kind folks in the NCAA. Irons missed the 2004 season with an ACL injury and he was already planning to enter the NFL draft before the news came. Another year will definitely help the cornerback who could improve his draft status with another year for the Tigers. 5. A hire here, a hire there – UCLA hired former UCF wide receivers coach D.J. McCarthy to fill the same roll with the Bruins. Former UCLA receivers coach Dino Babers moved over to coach the running backs, a spot left vacant by the departure of Eric Bieniemy to the Minnesota Vikings…Kentucky hired former Tennessee offensive coordinator Randy Sanders as its quarterback coach for 2006. Sanders was unfairly blamed for the Vols troubles this season and he resigned in October amid the Vols' 5-6 disappointing season…Fresno State has hired Steve Hagan as its offensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach, whose previous job was the quarterbacks coach for the Cleveland Browns. Hagan joins Pat Hill's staff out in the valley, and will begin working with the group of quarterbacks that will replace departed three year starter Paul Pinegar next season. 6. Portis to Maryland – Former Florida Gators quarterback Josh Portis will take his game to the Maryland Terrapins. Portis will sit out the 2006 season due to NCAA transfer rules and will be eligible to play in 2007. Portis was Chris Leak's backup last season and when he is eligible to play in 2007 he will have three seasons of eligibility left. Pick Six – Parting Shot * I'd like to send my condolences to the family and friends of Nikolette Harris in this week's parting shot. Harris had been diagnosed with acute lymphoblastic leukemia since a young age and she succumbed to the disease this past weekend. Harris received a great deal of hope thanks to thousands of college football fans, who donated roughly $100,000 to her cause in December alone. Nikolette's story was first posted on E-duck.com and spread across national college football message boards raising a great deal of money for her surgeries and treatment. This is just another touching story in the great game of college football, and once again it's the fans that the make the moments so special Matt Shaw is a NCAA staff writer for football.com. You can reach him at: matthewrshaw@gmail.com.